Missouri: The Bellwether State

You might know Missouri as "The Show Me State", or remember it as "that one state that compromise was named after", and while both of those things are true, one of the most interesting things about Missouri is its politics.

In political spheres, Missouri is referred to as a "bellwether" state. The original definition of bellwether was the first sheep of the flock, which wore a bell around its neck and led the flock, but in politics, this word has come to define something that demonstrates the national trend. In regards to Missouri, being a bellwether means that Missouri has voted for the winner of nearly every presidential election since 1904 (1956, 2008, and 2012 were the exceptions).

In the past, Missouri has been very much a swing state. A coalition of Republican progressives and Republican conservatives and a swarm of conservative Democrats during the 20th century made Missouri fairly balanced between political parties, and that made it a good sample for which candidate was the popular favorite among average Americans. In more recent years, the liberal cities of Kansas City in the West and St. Louis in the East have somewhat balanced out the rest of the state, which is mostly conservative.

Missouri has only broken its trend of being a bellwether state 3 times in 104 years. The first was in 1956, when the state vote for progressive Democrat Adlai Stevenson over a second term of president Eisenhower. Next, in 2008, John McCain won Missouri by a mere 4000 votes over Barack Obama, a difference of .2% of the vote. Finally, in 2012, Romney took the state in a clear victory over Obama.

In the past century, Missouri has had an incredible record of voting for winning presidents. However, some would argue that Missouri's time as a bellwether is coming to an end, as the state grows more conservative. With population increasing in conservative areas of the state but stagnation in St. Louis and Kansas City, the state is growing more solidly conservative, and may not be as good a sign of national trends anymore. One chance to see how much of a swing state Missouri truly is will be when Democratic Senator McCaskill goes up for reelection in November. If she manages to secure another term, it will be a sign that Missouri may still be a bellwether 106 years later.

https://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/BELLWETHER/bellwether.php
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_bellwether
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/is-missouri-still-a-bellwether/