The roots of this civil war began to form about two decades ago when Newt Gingrich created "The Contract with America". This pledge represented a hardcore turn from traditional Republican values. This Contract took the party in a more right wing direction and moved the Republican base away from the economic centers of the Coasts and into the heartland of the country. This was the first step by the more right-wing factions of the party to move the power away from the big business establishment and more into the hands of the heartland populists.
The next flare-up occurred during 2009 when then-President Barack Obama tried to pass health care. Conservatives all across the country began to take to the streets under the name of the Tea Party. The Tea Party Summer, lead by a grassroots prairie populists named Sarah Palin, shocked political pundits all across the country. Republicans in Washington began to realize that these political activists could bring them needed votes in their effort to take over Congress. This is where the Republican Party made a deal with the devil. They did not fully understand the far-right elements of the Tea Party and, overtime would find themselves increasing locked into what the Tea Party wanted them to do.
This struggle is no greater summed up than in the primary election dethroning of Eric Cantor, the former majority leader in the House. Cantor in 2014 received a primary challenge from the Right, a surprise given Cantor tended the be one of the most conservative leaders in the house. The reason for the challenge was Cantor had given the slightest inclination that he was willing to work with Barack Obama. The Tea Party, which now were finding the voting booths instead of the streets, sprang into action. Motivated, organized, and influenced by far-right media outlets such as Breitbart, Infowars, and conservative talk radio, they were able to overthrow the sitting House Majority Leader. This was a feat that had never been accomplished. This shocked and scared many conservative political analysts, and the party, instead of trying to push back against this right-wing backlash, decided to hop on for the ride.
Over the next series of the elections, the party was dragged further and further to the right. This no greater summed up than the foundation of the Freedom Caucus, which took the right wing ideals fo the Tea Party and put them in Congress. The power of this Caucus is no better represented than by the recent congressional fights over Health Care and the Tax Cuts. The Caucus was able to hold the rest of the party hostage until they made both plans more radical. Just around 30 members were able to hold this much leverage thanks to the fact that if the establishment Republicans tried to challenge they would have been primaried from the Right. This sort of leverage is what drove former Speaker of the House John Boehner out of Washington and was part of the same force that forced Paul Ryan to resign just this past month.
These Congressional divisions have been furthered heightened thanks to the election of Donald Trump. Trump has completely divided the party thanks to his economic populist agenda. This agenda, originally put forth by Steve Bannon, goes against years of establishment Republican thinking. His ideas of protectionist trade policies and a border wall are ideas that further alienate traditional Republicans. This is part of the reason that in the last year, 44 Republicans have announced their retirement from Congress. Many of those same Republicans are more moderate types that will be replaced by fringe elements of the Party.
In the last few months, the picture of the Modern Republican Party has begun to take better shape. The party, thanks to Trump, will continue to move in a further right-wing populist direction. They will continue to win big in working-class areas and the Appalachia Mountains. At the same time, the party will start to lose its traditional support among white suburban voters and elites. These two groups will either join the Democratic Party or try to form a more centrist party. Over few years and even the next few elections, it will be interesting to continue to track the movement of the Republican Party. Will the party continue to realign behind the Donald or will there be a moderate backlash?
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/04/the-2018-congressional-retirement-tracker/545723/
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