Trump's election was a shock to many Americans over the nation, but in reality, despite being a real estate developer/reality star with a difficult feat to win 270 electoral votes in front of him, Trump's candidacy was not actually a surprise to many, and was even predicted 15 years in advance.
Beginning with the more history oriented and event based timeline, Donald Trump's road to becoming president was completely different from the presidents before him. He lived an extravagant lifestyle in Queens on a gilded skyscraper, and had a well-endowed life. After his infamous escalator ride in his Trump Tower, he announced his presidential campaign, and began rallying with the slogan to "Make America Great Again." The political election forecast of 2016 showed a heavy favoring of Hillary Clinton, with a projected 71.4% chance of winning, holding 302.2 electoral votes and 48.5% of the popular vote. However, just after the closure of the first polls of the race, forecasts were shifted to predict a close race between the candidates.
The first significant victory that largely shaped the rest of the course of the election was Florida, taking the state by a single percentage point, showing that Trump did indeed have a chance of attaining the 270 votes. Not to mention, he was able to retain all states won by Mitt Romney, who he endorsed during Romney's campaign the previous term. The next pit stop was Ohio, and despite winning by a significantly larger margin, the victory set a precedent of what was to come: North Carolina. This was a watershed moment in the election as it was a crucial swing state, and despite only giving Trump four electoral votes in the race, it gave the soon-to-be president more breathing room.
The victory over the state of Pennsylvania was what ultimately set Trump over Clinton, and despite not choosing a Republican candidate since 1988 and beginning with a heavy favor towards Clinton, Trump somehow managed to clinch another victory with a one percent margin. Wisconsin was the last straw that broke the camel's back, and ultimately won Trump the election by taking him over 270 electoral votes.
Despite having the daunting task of 270 electoral votes in front of him, Trump was ultimately able to win the election by taking each individual state, snowballing to influence the rest of the election. By making key victories in swing states such as North Carolina, and winning votes by narrow margins of single percents, Trump came out on top, but faced the lowest popular support in comparison to any other modern president.
As a bonus fun fact, the candidacy and eventual outcome of the election was even predicted by the Simpsons show from 2000, which was fifteen years before the event actually happened. The show mirrored an exact image of Trump taking his escalator, and also depicted the America under the presidency of the victor, Trump. However, it was pitched to show a vision of "America going insane," suggesting an interesting future for the country of America.
Sources:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/28/politics/donald-trump-election-2016/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/us/politics/donald-trump-life-pictures.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/president-donald-trump-path-to-270-key-states-how-he-will-win-a7406096.html
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/how-the-simpsons-predicted-9-11-trump-and-disney-fox-1.3391062
I love reading about Simpsons predictions! It always is surprising, yet not really shocking that a show that has been on air for decades has been able to miraculously predict some of the biggest events in American history, like a future president. It was kind of bizarre that they were also able to predict the Fox-Disney purchase and how they were able to also coincidentally able to predict the 2016 Nobel Prize winner in Economics!
ReplyDeleteSource:https://www.thewrap.com/times-the-simpsons-predicted-future-gaga-nobel-disney-fox/